Религия в 2026: глобальные тренды

Религия в мире противоречиво. Запад секуляризуется, Африка и Азия — религиозные. Меньше традиционных деноминаций, больше духовности без религии. Портрет глобального религиозного ландшафта.

Глобальные данные

• 84% мировых — "религиозные"
• Растёт: Islam, Christianity в Africa
• Снижается: мейнстримные церкви в Europe/USA
• Atheism stable ~7%
• Unaffiliated: 16% (растёт)

Христианство

• 2,4 млрд
• Catholic 1,4 млрд
• Protestant 900 млн
• Orthodox 300 млн
• Other 100 млн

Islam

• 1,9 млрд
• Rastет fastest
• Sunni 85%, Shia 15%
• K 2050: equal to Christianity

Hinduism

• 1,2 млрд
• Mostly India
• Diaspora значительная
• Political в India

Buddhism

• 500 млн
• Asia primarily
• Growing в West как philosophy
• Various traditions

Judaism

• 15 млн
• Israel + diaspora
• Small but influential
• Internal divisions

Secularization

• Western Europe: 30-50% unaffiliated
• USA: 28% unaffiliated (rising)
• Canada, Australia similar
• Russia: complex картина

Россия

• Official: 70% Orthodox
• Actual practice: 5-10% regular
• "Православие как культура"
• Church-state alliance

Russian Orthodox Church

• Patriarch Kirill close to Putin
• Support for war controversial
• Ukrainian split (2018)
• Influence declining with youth

Mormons

• 17 млн members
• Утah base
• Missionary growth
• Political influence USA

Евангелические

• Fast growing христиане
• Latin America, Africa
• Mega-churches USA
• Politically conservative

Африка

• Christianity, Islam growing
• Traditional religions decline
• Pentecostal explosion
• 630 млн Christians

Nigeria

• 45% Muslim, 45% Christian
• Boko Haram terrorism
• Religious conflicts
• Megachurches huge

Latin America

• Catholic historically
• Evangelical growing 20%+
• Brazil, Guatemala
• Political impact

China

• Officially atheist
• Estimates: 100-200 млн religious
• House churches
• CCP regulation

China Christianity

• Could be world's largest
• Persecution cycles
• Underground churches
• State-approved Three-Self

India Hindutva

• Modi government
• Hindu nationalism
• Muslim minority pressure
• Historical revisionism

Sectarian conflict

• Sunni-Shia tensions
• Myanmar Rohingya
• Sri Lanka Buddhists vs others
• Israel-Palestine

Decline мейнстримных

• Episcopal, Methodist, Presbyterian
• Aging congregations
• Church closures
• Anglican Communion divided

Catholic crisis

• Sexual abuse scandals
• Membership decline in West
• Growth in Africa balance
• Francis reforms cautious

LGBTQ+ and religion

• Progressive denominations welcoming
• Conservative resistant
• Schisms result
• Individual believers vary

Women in religion

• Female ordination debates
• Orthodox forbid
• Catholic conservative
• Islam discussions
• Reform Judaism affirms

Spirituality без religion

• "SBNR" (spiritual but not religious)
• Mindfulness popular
• Yoga, meditation
• "Nones" inclusive

New Age

• Crystal healing, astrology
• Tarot
• Mixed with other traditions
• Commercial aspect

Astrology boom

• Gen Z interested
• Apps: Co-Star, Sanctuary
• Not strictly religious
• Entertainment + meaning

QAnon cult

• Online religious-like
• Conspiracy theory
• Political impact US
• Modern phenomenon

Wellness religion

• Peloton as community
• SoulCycle "spiritual"
• Fitness as meaning-source
• Crossover

Mega-church

• Hillsong, Joel Osteen
• Entertainment-style
• Prosperity gospel
• Criticism внутри

Prosperity gospel

• Faith = wealth
• Controversial theology
• African exports
• Trump-adjacent

Religious voting

• Evangelicals US Republican
• Catholic split
• Muslim Democrats
• Orthodox Russia conservative

Missionary work

• Christian missionaries global
• Muslim dawah
• LDS missions
• Cultural interactions complex

Hindu diaspora

• Temples in USA, UK, Europe
• Second generation issues
• Cultural identity
• Political influence

Jewish diaspora

• Israel-focused politics
• Antisemitism rising post-Oct 7
• Identity questions
• Aliyah trickle

Religious violence

• Nigeria Christian-Muslim
• Israel-Palestine
• Sectarian India
• Myanmar Rohingya
• Continues

Atheism movements

• Dawkins era 2000s
• New Atheism
• Declining in visibility
• Online pockets

Interfaith dialogue

• Pope Francis outreach
• Dalai Lama ecumenism
• Local community examples
• Slow progress

Religious education

• State schools mostly secular
• Private religious schools
• Homeschooling growth
• Debates continue

Young people

• Most secular generation
• Spiritual interested though
• Church decline among them
• Но religion still shapes lives

Pope Francis

• 2013+
• Progressive on climate, poverty
• Traditional on abortion, ordination
• Polarizing internally

Dalai Lama

• Aged 89 (2024)
• Succession drama coming
• China wants control
• Tibetan Buddhism future

Russia church in war

• Kirill supports military
• "Holy war" rhetoric
• Other Orthodox distancing
• Ukrainian church split

Future

• Global South religious majority
• West continues secularizing
• Spiritual hunger persists
• New forms emerging
• Old ones adapting or fading