С 1990-х по 2020-е мир двигался к гиперглобализации: единые цепочки поставок, универсальные бренды, работа удалённо из Бангалора для Сан-Франциско. 2020-е принесли разворот. Регионализация, "friendshoring", экономические блоки — новая реальность.
Пиковая глобализация
- 1990-2008: peak
- WTO 1995, Китай вступил 2001
- Супер-цепочки поставок: Apple в Китае
- Торговля росла быстрее ВВП
- Экономисты видели "конец истории"
Первые трещины
- 2008 финансовый кризис: доверие упало
- Brexit 2016: первая крупная развязка
- Trump vs Китай tariffs 2018
- COVID 2020: supply chains broken
- Ukraine 2022: oil, gas, wheat shocks
Friendshoring
- Термин Janet Yellen
- Торговля с "friends", не по эффективности
- Mexico benefits (nearshoring к США)
- Vietnam растёт (diversify from China)
Chip war
- Semi conducts central
- TSMC (Taiwan) chokepoint
- US сanctions against China
- Intel, Samsung factories в Arizona, Japan
- Subsidies everywhere
Decoupling USA-China
- Trade still huge
- But tech fence ($)
- Investment restrictions
- TikTok ban threat
- Biden continues Trump's policy
Russia sanctions
- Unprecedented 2022+
- "Sanctioning нефти, финанс"
- Russia redirected trade to Asia
- Parallel economy
БРИКС expansion
- BRICS+ with UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia (2024)
- Alternative to G7
- De-dollarization talk
- Still early days
Dollar dominance
- 61% global reserves
- Challenges: BRICS payments
- Oil в юанях or dirhamах
- Slow erosion possible
Industrial policy returns
- US Chips Act $52B
- Inflation Reduction Act $400B
- EU subsidies competing
- Japan reshoring
- Globalization in reverse
Green economy
- China dominates solar, batteries
- West trying to catch up
- EV wars tariffs
- Critical minerals geopolitics
Inflation
- Globalization was anti-inflationary
- Deglobalization: cost push
- Wages rising (workers less available)
- Prices structurally higher
Trade volumes
- Peaked 2008
- Plateau since
- Services (digital) growing, goods flat
- "Slowbalization"
Supply chain redesign
- Just-in-time → just-in-case
- Inventory up
- Multiple suppliers
- Regional clusters
Multinational corporations
- Apple moving some production out of China
- But China remains central
- India iPhone manufacturing growing
- Vietnam, Malaysia expanding
Russia isolation
- Cut from SWIFT (partially)
- Visa, Mastercard exit
- Mir cards domestic
- Trade with China, India, Turkey
Developing country challenges
- Exports-led growth more difficult
- Commodity dependence risky
- Debt crises: Zambia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan
- China's Belt and Road slowing
US reshoring
- Manufacturing jobs returning
- TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio
- Costs higher but strategic
- Biden "Buy American"
EU Strategic Autonomy
- Macron concept
- Energy independence
- Defense industry
- Tech sovereignty
Food security
- Russia-Ukraine 30% of world wheat
- Food prices spiked
- Fertilizer shortages
- Countries stock-pile
Labor
- Remote work globalized services
- But visa restrictions
- Wages в поисках арбитража
- "Digital nomad" class emerging
Ideology shift
- Neoliberalism declining
- Industrial policy legitimized
- Protectionism less shameful
- "National security" flexible term
Global institutions
- WTO struggling, DS broken
- WHO weakened by Trump/COVID
- UN veto dysfunction
- New institutions emerge (BRICS)
Tourism
- Fast recovery post-COVID
- But visa politics changing
- Russia-friendly countries emerging
- Geopolitics travel
Academic exchange
- Russian students face barriers
- Chinese students leaving US
- Research collaboration strained
- Knowledge exchange damaged
Culture
- Hollywood reach limited
- Bollywood, K-pop growing
- Cultural exchange continues
- Regional markets important
Challenges ahead
- Climate requires global cooperation
- Pandemic risks need coordination
- AI governance needs agreement
- Tensions make it harder
Two blocs or many
- Bipolar (US vs China) simplification
- Multipolar more accurate
- India, Japan, EU independent
- Global South swing votes
India rise
- Economy #5 then #3?
- Population world leader
- Balances US and Russia
- Manufacturing alternative
Middle East
- UAE, Saudi — non-aligned
- China mediated Saudi-Iran
- Financial hub Dubai
- Energy leverage
African rising?
- Demographics favorable
- Resource wealth
- Chinese investment
- Trade blocks
Latin America
- Лула leftist surge
- Mexican nearshoring benefits
- Commodity dependence
- Democratic challenges
Для граждан
- Prices higher
- Jobs уменьшаются tech workers
- Investments регионализуются
- Education must adapt
Business implications
- Supply chain redesign
- Multiple production
- Political risk management
- Smaller margins
Future
- Slow grind continues
- Globalization not dead
- But less integrated
- Regional blocs stronger
- More competitive order
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